“THERE’S definitely more money going into mining; the question is how we create the stability and trust in the jurisdiction for money to come back.”
This was Newmont CEO Natascha Viljoen on Wednesday in a presentation at the Joburg Indaba, a conference in Johannesburg’s plush Illovo suburb. It’s a well-attended event. The sessions are typically direct, as South Africans tend to be. Alternatively, delegates can repair to the verandah overlooking the Inanda Polo Club paddock, where horses are given their morning turnout. As far as jurisdictions go, Illovo already has a lot of ‘return money’.
Viljoen’s comments were about South Africa’s mining industry, where policy uncertainty, driven by the government’s non-stop tinkering with rules, has undermined investor confidence.
Massively under-explored in the modern age, South Africa’s mineral fields struggle to attract exploration capital. To put that in context, less than 1% of the world’s exploration budget is spent in a country with the largest platinum and manganese reserves, and the third-largest gold reserves.
Might Ghana, a shining light in Africa’s minerals sector, end up in similar straits? There’s a risk it might. Asked by Miningmx what she thought of Ghana’s evolving business environment, Viljoen responded: “The landscape has definitely changed.”
Ghana, led by President John Mahama, recently imposed new royalty regulations on its gold miners. One that catches the eye is a 12% levy on gross revenue when the gold price reaches $4,500/oz. Including a 1% levy for mining communities, that’s a meaningful hike from the 5% flat royalty under the administration of former president Nana Akufo-Addo. Ahafo produced 734,000oz for Newmont in 2025, most of it from Ahafo South. The balance came from Ahafo North, a new project still building up production. Ahafo had its own sliding-scale royalty agreement under which the rate could have been as low as 3%.
Viljoen acknowledged that long-dated stability agreements may not be appropriate in modern Ghana. At the same time, however, miners need line of sight on fiscal rules and state ownership in order to build mines. Right now, Newmont is in limbo: Ahafo’s stability agreement was not renewed when it expired last year. These and other issues will be resolved when a planned overhaul of the 2006 Minerals and Mining Act is published.
Miningmx asked Viljoen what Ghana’s tax and ownership overhaul could mean for the possible expansion of Ahafo South, where production is heading down (440koz at an AISC of $2,160/oz this year, according to guidance, compared with 664koz last year). She said: “We need certainty in order for us to invest in mines. There are now new expectations between the government, industry and society that need to be met.”
Quite what Newmont privately thinks of Ghana can only be imagined, but the events befalling Gold Fields must feel ominous. Gold Fields is yet to hear whether Ghana will renew the mining licence for its Tarkwa mine, which accounts for a fifth of its total production.
Newmont has less exposure to Ghana than Gold Fields, at about 12% of overall production. But less attractive investment rules raise the cost of capital and lower the competitiveness of assets within a portfolio. At the same time, Newmont needs to replenish its reserves. Following its restructuring after recent M&A, it has targeted production of about six million ounces.
“I’ve been asked the question: what’s the biggest challenge of being the biggest gold mining company? The reality is we need to replace 6 million ounces of reserves,” said Viljoen in her Joburg Indaba presentation. She added: “When we develop mines in jurisdictions we have confidence in, we do need to push our thinking: what else is possible?”