SIBANYE-Stillwater has cut its annual US platinum group metals (PGM) production forecast following a five-week strike that disrupted operations and left staffing levels significantly below planned levels.
The group said in a quarterly trading update on Thursday that it now expects production of between 245,000 and 255,000 ounces (oz) in PGMs from the mine for 2026, down from its previous forecast of 280,000 to 300,000 oz.
Crucially, all-in sustaining costs (AISC) are forecast to be $1,700 to $1,760/oz, compared with $1,520 to $1,580/oz previously, excluding US manufacturing tax credits. Sibanye-Stillwater has targeted AISC of below $1,100/oz over the next three years which it believes is a sustainable break-even for the mine.
The strike, which began on 3 September at the Stillwater mine and Columbus metallurgical complex, ended after employees ratified a new collective bargaining agreement. Workers returned on 9 October.
Sibanye-Stillwater said labour attrition increased significantly during wage negotiations, leaving staffing levels approximately 25% below the planned 2027 mechanised workforce. The fourth quarter will focus on rebuilding work teams and restoring production.
US PGM production fell 19% year on year to 59,417 oz in the September quarter, while AISC increased 39% to $1,617/oz. Sales volumes declined by 7% to 72,514 oz as concentrate inventories were processed during the strike.
The group said the strike's full impact on sales would only become apparent in the fourth quarter, when inventory levels are expected to normalise.
The new wage agreement introduces team-based incentives and work practices aligned with mechanised mining. Sibanye-Stillwater is targeting a 45% increase in steady-state production to approximately 410,000oz and a reduction in AISC to roughly $1,000/oz by the end of 2028.
"Despite the impact on the performance for the third quarter of 2026, the conclusion of the multi-year collective bargaining agreements supports the long-term sustainability and competitiveness of the US PGM operations, in the interests of all stakeholders,” CEO Richard Stewart said.
Keliber
Meanwhile, Sibanye-Stillwater indicated that it would continue with a staged start-up of its Keliber lithium project in Finland amid continued pressure on lithium prices. This may indicate it is having second thoughts about producing lithium hydroxide which would require further processing through a refinery.
"In response to lithium market volatility, the staged commissioning approach prioritises stable mining and concentrator performance before the refinery start-up, reducing integrated ramp-up risk and preserving capital flexibility," said CEO Richard Stewart in notes to the production update today.
The group said lithium supply forecasts had been revised upwards, exceeding demand growth and resulting in a larger than expected market surplus for 2026.
Sibanye-Stillwater said hot commissioning of the Keliber concentrator continued during the September quarter, with further testing at design capacity planned for the fourth quarter.
Sibanye-Stillwater previously indicated that a decision on the timing of the refinery's commissioning would be made in the fourth quarter, depending on lithium prices.
When Sibanye-Stillwater approved the Keliber project in November 2022, it put the capital cost of the Kokkola lithium hydroxide refinery at €359m. That was part of a total project budget of €588m, which also covered the concentrators. Since then, the total project cost has been increased to €783m or about $900m, equal to R14.8bn.