[miningmx.com] — COAL exports through the Richards Bay Coal Terminal (RBCT) have made a very slow start to 2011 and are running at an annualised rate of just 53.4 million tonnes (mt).
That compares with exports of 63.4mt for 2010 and a target for 2011 of 70mt.
Comparable figures for 2010 show that the RBCT had exported 9.8mt by the end of February, giving an annualised shipment rate of 59mt.
Export performance so far backs up the pessimistic assessment for 2011 of Exxaro Resources (Exxaro) coal GM Mxolisi Mgojo.
He told investors at Exxaro’s recent presentation of its 2010 results that the group expected to maintain its coal exports at an unchanged 4.1mt during 2011.
That was despite the earlier forecast by Transnet Freight Rail (TFR) that it would increase railages to Richard Bay during calendar 2011 to 70mt from the level of 62.9mt achieved in 2010.
Asked why he had made a low forecast on 2011 exports, Mgojo said it resulted from a combination of Exxaro’s pessimistic views on TFR’s likely performance combined with the difficulty of leasing unused RBCT entitlements.
He said: “TFR have already cut back their estimated railage volumes for 2011 to 68mt, following underperformance in the first two months of the year.
“We have also cut back on some of our export production capacity given the current situation because, at 70mt/year, our nominal export entitlement is only 3.4mt/year.
“The current high prices being paid for export coal make it likely that holders of export entitlements they were previously not using may now opt to export the coal themselves and not sell us the entitlements.’
Exxaro has a nominal export entitlement through the Richards Bay Coal Terminal (RBCT) of 6.3mt/year, following completion of the Phase 5 expansion last year compared with 1.8mt/year previously.
The RBCT can now export 91mt annually but TFR’s railage volumes are running at the same levels as a decade ago, when the terminal only had the capacity to export 72mt/year.
The reasons for this are capital spending constraints at TFR, combined with years of underperformance because of issues such as insufficient rolling stock and locomotives, inefficient use of the existing infrastructure and frequent derailments on the line.
TFR’s current five-year capital budget provides for its coal haulage capacity on the Richards Bay line to rise to only 81mt/year.
Last year Exxaro’s actual export entitlement was reduced to 3mt because of railage problems, which included the impact of a three-week strike as well as various major derailments.
The group sourced the 1.1mt balance of its 4.1mt total exports by leasing unused entitlement from other RBCT exporters.
But the latest statistics also reveal that, despite its problems, TFR is still delivering coal to the terminal at a faster rate than the RBCT is exporting it.
The terminal exported 4.6mt of coal during February, to bring the year-to-date total to 8.9mt or an annualised level of 53.4mt.
But TFR delivered 5.5mt during February, bringing total railages for the year-to-date to 10.2mt – an annualised delivery rate of 61.2mt.
As a result, RBCT stock levels have increased to 2.8mt at end-February from 1.7mt at the end of December.
