July Ndlovu

JULY Ndlovu describes himself as “the ultimate optimist”. As head of a thermal coal export company at a time when markets are moving to low-carbon energy, he would have to be. Dysfunction at South Africa’s rail and ports company Transnet also complicates matters. Yet, large parts of Asia will need coal for decades; in fact, the one-billion-ton ‘peak coal’ annual demand number that’s often bandied about may persist for longer than forecast. 

On Transnet and its export volume constraints, Ndlovu insists progress is being made. Richards Bay Coal Terminal (RBCT), the privately owned handling terminal, once processed 77 million tons. This fell to a dismal 47.2Mt in 2023. For 2024, Transnet may achieve about 50Mt on the RBCT line, thanks to its new CEO and with not a little help from RBCT’s shareholders, the coal exporters, who have provided parts for locomotives and security. 

But with limited growth possible in South Africa at this point, Thungela has spread its wings. It bought Ensham mine in Australia in 2023, which provides Thungela with a foothold in a developed market, the potential for major production growth, and a new revenue stream in metallurgical coal output. Though he’s cautious to comment on expanding Thungela’s footprint, Ndlovu is casting his net for another Ensham. Price will be important, however. When Anglo American was looking for buyers for its Australian metallurgical coal mines last year, Thungela was nowhere to be seen. Ndlovu later acknowledged the deal was too big for his firm to swallow.