FATAL accidents, harsh weather and operational blunders are battering Chile’s ageing copper mines, casting doubt on how fast the world’s biggest producer can recover from its weakest output in over two decades, Bloomberg News reports.
At least seven workers have died at Chilean mines in the past month, two in an avalanche at Codelco’s El Teniente. Rain and snow have repeatedly disrupted operations, with authorities urging mines to consider stopping work as another storm approaches, said the newswire. Labour tensions persist, even though a strike at Antofagasta’s Centinela has ended and BHP narrowly averted a walkout at Escondida, the world’s largest copper mine, it added.
The turmoil coincides with LME Week in London, where faltering supply will colour 2027 contract talks. Chile, source of over 20% of global mined copper, could tip world mine output into its first annual fall since 2017 as demand from data centres and power grids accelerates.
Deeper pits and falling ore grades also mean more rock must be processed for the same copper, and Jefferies estimates Chilean open pits suffer a natural decline of about 2% a year.
Finance minister Jorge Quiroz expects output to fall about 7% this year to roughly 5 million metric tons, the lowest since 2003. Cochilco forecasts a 2.6% drop then a 5.2% rebound in 2027, while CRU believes Chile will need until 2030 to regain 6Mt.
Debt-laden Codelco is investigating possible irregularities in its 2024 and 2025 production figures and, under chairman Bernardo Fontaine, now favours profitability over volume.
Output at Escondida fell 28% year on year in August, with Collahuasi down 25%.
Cesco’s Cristian Cifuentes said the market should expect a stagnant Chile with a shrinking share rather than one in free fall.